A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
